And then there were four.
With the College Football Playoff down to its final four, the final stage is set with two heavyweight semifinal matchups. It’s a paradise for fans, with back-to-back nights of playoff football with four absolutely loaded squads.
Anticipation is building for the upcoming Orange Bowl Battle Royale on January 9th, where the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face off against the Penn State Nittany Lions. This matchup marks an exciting renewal of their storied rivalry, as it will be their first bowl game meeting since 2007.
Looking ahead, we also have the Cotton Bowl on January 10th, where the Ohio State Buckeyes will take on the Texas Longhorns, looking to showcase their Texas-sized potential.
We’ll take a closer look at each matchup and offer some predictions.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State (Orange Bowl)
Kickoff: Thursday, July 9th at 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Under 45.5 Points (-115)
If you like defense and… more defense, this game is your kind of vibe. Notre Dame and Penn State boast elite defenses that make offensive coordinators sweat and quarterbacks desperately yell “Omaha!” a few extra times.
What the Numbers Say
- Notre Dame allows just 13.6 points per game, which is second-best in the league.
- Penn State is barely behind, giving up 15.8 PPG and showcasing a top-10 pass rush led by Abdul Carter.
These teams love to run the ball and chew up the clock. Add in the pace of play (both teams rank in the top 34% slowest tempos), and you have all the ingredients for a low-scoring slugfest.
Key Players to Watch
- Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts patrols the secondary like a hawk.
- Penn State’s Abdul Carter (if healthy—he’s questionable) leads one of the most disruptive defensive fronts in college football.
Both defenses should shine here, and if Carter is cleared to play, Penn State has an edge in talent. While Notre Dame’s run game might be limited due to injuries (we see you, Jeremiyah Love), Penn State’s dynamic duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen could struggle against Notre Dame’s top-tier run defense.
Notre Dame is favored slightly, but Penn State Nittany Lions odds pulling an upset (+110!) wouldn’t be shocking. For now, the Under 45.5 looks like the safest bet; projection models like this showdown stay closer to the 41-43 point range.
Ohio State vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl)
Kickoff: Friday, July 10th at 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction 1: Texas +5.5 (+100)
Prediction 2: Ohio State Under 30.5 Points (-122)
Now we’re talking. Two of the most talented rosters in college football meet in what could be an instant classic. The Buckeyes are red-hot, riding a wave of dominance after dismantling Oregon in the quarterfinals. But the Longhorns? Don’t sleep on this team—they could absolutely pull this off.
Why Texas Can Cover (or Win Outright)
- Elite Defense: Texas ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback, with a loaded secondary led by Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron and a stacked defensive line. Ohio State’s offensive line (ranked 107th in pass-blocking grades) is in for a long night.
- Trenches Battle: Texas dominates in the trenches, ranking first in pass-blocking grades and potentially getting standout lineman Cam Williams back for this game.
If Texas can disrupt Ohio State’s tempo and keep their offensive line unsettled, this game will play closer than the current spread suggests or may swing in their favor.
Why Ohio State Might Struggle to Score Big
- Turnover Concerns: Will Howard has been electric but prone to the occasional mistake—he’s thrown critical interceptions against tough defenses like Michigan and Penn State.
- First-Quarter Defense: Texas allows just 1.8 first-quarter points per game, the third-fewest nationally. Ohio State’s tendency to start fast may stall against this gritty defense.
Both teams are loaded with NFL-caliber talent, and while Ohio State is the favorite to win outright, Texas’ underdog potential feels juicy. Projection models have the Buckeyes scoring around 27-28 points, making Under 30.5 a confident pick.
These Matchups are Packed with Storylines
Both of these semifinals have unique angles that make them can’t-miss games. Whether it’s a defensive grind in the Orange Bowl or a high-stakes showdown in the Cotton Bowl, each game promises a bit of drama and a ton of excitement.
Quick Recap for Bettors:
- Orange Bowl: Under 45.5 Points (-115)
- Cotton Bowl:
- Texas +5.5 (+100)
- Ohio State Under 30.5 Points (-122)
Who Will Shine Under the Bright Lights?
The College Football Playoff never fails to deliver, and this year’s semifinals look set to be a roller-coaster of emotions for fans, players, and bettors alike. Whether it’s Notre Dame and Penn State’s defensive chess match or Texas battling to shock the Buckeyes, these games have that “instant classic” energy.
If you’re placing your bets, play smart, trust the numbers (and, well, your gut), and enjoy the ride. After all, college football is as unpredictable as it is glorious. And with the semifinals in sight, it’s time to grab some snacks and get ready for a wild ride. The journey to the National Championship begins now.
